If conventional wisdom held that China would never risk Hong Kong’s market, that was predicated on a specter of a foreign financial exodus. When the national security law was promulgated, experts warned of an international withdrawal and an end to Hong Kong’s status as a global financial capital. Thus far, that seems not to have come to pass. Hong Kong’s economy shrank a record 6 percent last year, due to the pandemic, but is forecast to recover significantly by the end of 2021. Even as the political restrictions are growing tighter, Hong Kong—with its successful COVID-19 response and strong export markets—looks to be on an economic upswing. Is it? What are key factors shaping the city’s economic future?