On Monday I traveled over 30 kilometers in Beijing on public transportation, spending RMB 4.4, with most of the distance and RMB 2 of the fare used on the Beijing Subway. One thing’s for sure: those days will soon be over.

The flat RMB 2 fare that is so popular among Beijingers, which was already set to rise sometime in the second half of this year, lost the city USD 558 million in 2013, according to The Wall Street Journal‘s China Real Time Report. Operational costs and expansion of the system cost Beijing RMB 5.33 billion in 2013. Just to break even, a subway ticket would have to be priced at RMB 6 per ride, triple its current rate.

With a distance-based system likely to be implemented, Beijing commuters could see their travel costs rise significantly. Although a cap of RMB 5 for distances longer than five kilometers has been proposed, the municipal government has yet to finalize its plan and the pricing.

We adore the Beijing Subway and use it to come to work almost every day, and while the need for a fare increase is obvious, not all of the reasons behind it are. Complaints that fares need to rise because the subway is too crowded miss the bigger picture: aside from the price, the Subway’s greatest advantage is that it avoids surface traffic and is therefore generally a faster way to commute. Driving passengers back up to surface routes just means that problem will at the very least not improve.

Prior to the opening of new subway lines, such as Line 10 in July, 2008, many Beijingers believed that the new options would lead many car owners to stop driving and take public transportation instead, which we can say with great confidence did not occur. So what happens when some commuters find themselves priced off of the Beijing Subway, and then only have the bus (or possibly bicycle) as a transport option?

Regardless, with losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars, it’s clear that fares will be going up, and that will be that.

Photo: Wikimedia