At the end of October, videos began circulating on social media of workers at an iPhone plant in the city of Zhengzhou fleeing factory grounds to escape a quarantine lockdown of some 200,000 employees. Whether the workers wanted to escape the lockdown itself or avoid COVID infection, the incident highlighted the ongoing challenges China faces in its management of the epidemic, and underlined the questions surrounding the longevity of China’s zero-COVID policy. Some experts expect China’s leaders will begin to experiment with a softening of restrictions in the coming months, and Chinese stocks briefly surged earlier this month amid rumors that rules would be loosened. But in recent days, Guangzhou has seen what officials have described as a “dire and complicated” outbreak, while rising COVID infection across the country has led to further lockdowns like the Zhengzhou plant’s. What are necessary preconditions for a softening of the policy? How will it end? And what are likely to be its consequences?