As recently as the fourth quarter of 2013, there were few detractors from an optimistic assessment of China’s prospects to achieve a “soft landing” and continue to enjoy relatively stable growth in the 7 to 8 percent range for the next 10 years and more. According to that baseline extrapolation China would become the world’s largest economy and consumer market in only a few years’ time. This consensus scenario was the key projection promoted by China’s state-run media, and it was generally passed on through the global business media as well. In simplest terms, it foresaw a China that had reached a level of maturity where it was subject to normal downturns and corrections that were familiar to investors and analysts in developed economies around the world. By 2010, China’s leaders had embraced the global “soft landing” vs. “hard landing” framework, and a year ago reported with considerable satisfaction that a “soft landing” had been achieved.
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